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Put Spreads as an Attractive Hedge

With the announcement that QE2 will not end early, the euphoria in the markets seems to be setting us up for a summer market correction followed by the announcement of QE3.  I remember May 5, 2010 quite well and I hope you do too.

Hedging equity positions can be fairly expensive over time, but I believe there are very attractive ways to mitigate that cost.  The simplest method is to purchase a put option as a floor against sudden equity downdrafts.  The problem with puts is that they are very expensive insurance policies.   The natural extension of a put position is a put-spread.  A put spread simply buys an option near the money and sells an option further out of the money so you could buy a put at 100 and sell a put at 90.  With the 100-90 long put spread position, you have purchased protection against a 10% drop in the markets at a cost that is often dramatically less than the lone ATM put position.  The reason that put spreads usually look attractive is because there is usually a steep skew in the option pricing in which options with lower strike prices are priced more richly than options with higher strike prices.  By entering into a put spread, you effectively purchase an option at a lower implied volatility and sell an option at a higher implied volatility.

Skew is steep, so options with lower strikes trade with higher implied volatilities

Simple Put Spread

If you focus on the June expiry SPY options (white line above), then you can see that a put option ATM (135) trades at about a 14.25% implied volatility while an option that is 7% out of the money (126 strike) trades at about a 19% implied volatility.  If you purchase a 135-126 put spread, then you are purchasing at 14.25% implied vol and selling at 18% implied volatility. This simple strategy reduces the cost of the hedge from -2.1% of the underlying to -1.5%. Not very exciting, but progress.

Bearish Diagonal Put Spread

If you look at the white line versus the yellow line, you can see that September volatility is trading at quite a bit higher implied volatility than June.  If you are willing to sell longer dated options in a mismatched calendar put spread strategy, then you could buy that same 135 June put option and sell the September 126 at a 19.6% volatility.  This would reverse your hedge cost from -2.1% to +.1%.  You actually make money, but your risk is that the market does nothing between now and June and then falls quickly thereafter.

I like the (bearish/reverse?) diagonal put spread strategy for a number of reasons:

  1. I am purchasing implied volatility at much lower levels by buying the short dated put, making the short dated downside protection fairly inexpensive.
  2. I am selling implied volatility that not only takes advantage of the steep skew, but also takes advantage of the fact that longer dated options are trading at higher implied volatilities than short dated options.
  3. The position allows me to view the short dated long position independently from the long-dated position with more comfort.  If I simply bought a put spread, then I would most likely close out both positions if the market tanked.  If the market tanks with the calendar spread, then I am more likely to sell out of my long put position at a profit and let my written options with a few months till expiration a bit of breathing room.  This especially applies if I write the longer dated options at strikes in which I am comfortable buying and owning more of the underlying stock/index over a long time horizon.
  4. As the longer dated written option ages (all else equal) the implied volatility should drop to the shorter dated implied volatility, thereby you are “rolling down the vol curve”.

I hope this brings some new ideas to your option trading strategies.  My all-time favorite hedge is one step removed from here – a bearish ratio diagonal put spread in which I buy short dated put options and sell a larger number of far out of the money longer dated put options….


 

Option Spread Strategies: Trading Up, Down, and Sideways Markets

Spread trading—trading complex, multi-leg structures–is the new frontier for the individual options trader. This book covers spread strategies, both of the limited-risk and unlimited-risk varieties, and how and when to use them.

All eight of the multi-leg strategies are here: the covered-write, verticals, collars and reverse-collars, straddles and strangles, butterflies, calendar spreads, ratio spreads, and backspreads. Vocabulary, exercises and quizzes are included throughout the book to reinforce lessons.

Saliba, Corona, and Johnson are the authors of Option Strategies for Directionless Markets.

 

Posted in Derivatives, Educational, Markets, Trading Ideas.

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Volatility Probability

Trading is much easier when you try to stay away from the losing team.  When markets are rising, do not short them.  When markets are falling, be wary of catching a falling knife.  To be successful at trading over the long haul, you do not have to be a winner all of the time, you just have to be a winner slightly more often then not.  If you cannot achieve a probability edge, then you need to be able to “cut your losers and let your winners run”.  If you are successful with both conditions, then let the money roll in.

Volatility is interesting because it is mean reverting, so we can generally say under normal times that 5% annualized volatility is low and 25% annualized volatility is high.  A lot of italics in the previous statement.  Due to the magnitude of the global financial recession, the extent of imbalances in current accounts, the size of government intervention and the massive debt load of developed country governments – I would call this less than a normal time.  This is why I continually expect the unexpected.  The risk flare can come from an earth quake, turbulence in the middle east, a missed payment by a Eurozone member, a collapse of commodity prices, a double dip in housing, an inability to raise the US debt ceiling, a spike in inflation, a subtle slowdown in the economy to stall speed, the withdrawal of government stimulus measures, or maybe something that is not even on our radar.  The point is that we are in fragile times with a global economic recovery that is anything but robust.  With that as a backdrop, we need to be prepared more for risk flares than a return to normalcy.

 

Return to normalcy or at the bottom of the range?

I read the above graph to mean that we are at the bottom of the risk level’s trading range rather than entering into normal trading volatility ranges.  I fully expect to see volatility spikes return on a regular basis for the next few years, so when implied volatility is below 15 I am more of a buyer than a seller of risk protection.

If you truly believe that the economic recovery is roaring, then rationalize the drop in the level of the economic surprise index (average % outperformance of economic data versus analyst/economist forecasts) versus a somewhat euphoric march upward in equities:

Posted in Derivatives, Economics, Markets, Politics, Technical Analysis.

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Noteworthy News – April 25, 2011

Economy:

Is the nation headed for a McRecovery? – The Washington Post

Stimulus by Fed Is Disappointing, Economists Say – New York Times

Going swimmingly: The city-state has a handy habit of taking advantage of financial upheaval – Economist

Beijing’s Empty Bullet Trains: Is China investing way too much in its infrastructure? – Slate

Number of the Week: Americans Buy More Stuff They Don’t Need – Wall Street Journal

Markets:

Dollar’s Biggest Decline? 2001-08 – The Big Picture

Dollar Weakens as Global Growth Optimism Buoys Riskier Assets – Bloomberg

How S&P’s warning could actually help US debt – Associated Press

Markets Get Ready to Navigate Fed’s Departure – Wall Street Journal

Obama administration eyes energy markets for fraud – Reuters

Politics:

Bernanke May Reinvest Maturing Debt to Avoid ‘Cold Turkey’ End to Stimulus – Bloomberg

The politics and economics of a falling dollar – Washington Post

Banks:

Bank Of America Makes Easy Profits Off Fed While Depositors Get Shortchanged – HuffingtonPost

Bank of America Wins Dismissal From Countrywide Mortgage Securities Suit – Bloomberg

Rajaratnam, Goldman, Taylor Bean, Wells Fargo in Court News – Bloomberg



Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.


Taibbi – Real Housewives of Wall Street

Matt Taibbi has been one of the lone voices in the media who has consistently called out the ridiculous bailouts of this last global financial crisis.  In his latest Rolling Stones piece, he attacks the TALF program and the risk-free loans provided to the few wall-street elite.  It is bone-chillingly unbelievable, yet absolutely true.

Christy is the wife of John Mack, the chairman of Morgan Stanley. Susan is the widow of Peter Karches, a close friend of the Macks who served as president of Morgan Stanley’s investment-banking division….

Neither seems to have any experience whatsoever in finance, beyond Susan’s penchant for dabbling in thoroughbred racehorses. But with an upfront investment of $15 million, they quickly received $220 million in cash from the Fed, most of which they used to purchase student loans and commercial mortgages. The loans were set up so that Christy and Susan would keep 100 percent of any gains on the deals, while the Fed and the Treasury (read: the taxpayer) would eat 90 percent of the losses. Given out as part of a bailout program ostensibly designed to help ordinary people by kick-starting consumer lending, the deals were a classic heads-I-win, tails-you-lose investment.

It is worth it to read the full article – Matt Taibbi – The Real Housewives of Wall Street

 

Posted in Conspiracy, Markets, Media, Politics.

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Closed End Muni Funds

At a point in time when a 10 year treasury earns 3.37%, a 30 year treasury earns 4.44%, and an investment grade corporate bond portfolio with average maturity of 12 years (LQD) has an indicated yield of 4.7% you just have to wonder where any sort of income is available.  My first conclusion is that I would rather hold a equity REIT ETF (IYR) at 3.38% than hold a 10 year treasury at 3.37%.  My second conclusion is that both yields leave quite a bit to be desired.

My next thought is to look at the current unloved asset class in the investment world – Municipal Bonds.  The market vectors long municipal (MLN) earns a whopping 5.34% (average maturity 24.22 years!), the iShares S&P AMT-Free Muni (MUB) earns a healthy 3.63% (average maturity 10.46 years).  These funds are interesting because they are federal tax free.  Assuming a 25% federal tax bracket ($69-139,500 married filed jointly) that works out to a 7.12% (.0534/.75)  and 4.8% tax-equivalent yield respectively.  Obviously if you pay more in federal taxes these yields are even higher.

The follow up is to look at the unloved of unloved – closed end muni funds.  The beauty of closed end funds is that when people do not like the asset class, the closed end funds can trade at a discount to the NAV – meaning that you can buy the funds for less than you can buy what the fund actually owns.  I will not speculate on the value of the funds below, but allow you to peruse the closed end muni funds that trade at discounts to their net asset values.

 

Posted in Markets, Politics, Trading Ideas.

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