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VIX Futures Flatten Out

With the recent equity breakout to the upside, the VIX has crumbled and taken the VIX futures with it.  The curve is in slight contango which might mean that the trade of 2010, shorting VXX, might come back into vogue:

Seems unlikely that we will retest local highs on the VIX

The market sentiment seems to have changed drastically to the positive in a short period of time.  With the collapse in credit spreads, the VIX, the dollar, and rising equity markets, it might be difficult to change the mood to the negative regardless of European politics.  The only market risk factor that has not improved dramatically is the level of interest rates, but it is difficult to judge how the absolute level of interest rates has been impacted by the actions and potential actions of the fed.  Right now it seems to be a win for the bulls as we head into the end of October and typically the bullish season of the year.

 

Posted in Derivatives, Markets.

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By SurlyTrader – October 24, 2011

Noteworthy News – October 24, 2011

Economy:

World power swings back to America – Telegraph

A long, steep drop for Americans’ standard of living – Christian Science Monitor

Payrolls Decline in 25 States , Led by North Carolina; Florida Tops Gains – Bloomberg

Fed’s Yellen: QE3 May Be Warranted – Bloomberg

Markets:

Maybe markets need more principles and less regulation – Reuters

Commodity traders: The trillion dollar club – Reuters

U.S. rating likely to be downgraded again: Merrill – Reuters

Politics:

EU Confronts Worsening Greek Data as Crisis Marathon Opens – Bloomberg

Fed Considers More Easing: What Are They Thinking? – CNBC

Rage against the machine: People are right to be angry. But it is also right to be worried about where populism could take politics – Economist

Banks:

BofA puts taxpayers on the hook for Merrill’s derivatives – Reuters

The Only Way to Save the Economy: Break Up the Giant, Insolvent Banks – The Big Picture

Dick Bove: Europe ‘Irrelevant’ to US Banks – CNBC


 

Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.

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By SurlyTrader – October 23, 2011

Undercover Infiltration In Occupy Wall Street

From the New York Observer:

one of the protesters who was arrested during Saturday’s Occupy Wall Street march for trying to hold a General Assembly in Citibank, told the Village Voice what went down that day. Apparently a plainclothed cop had been very well informed of the situation ahead of time and hidden himself in the crowd.

Here’s what Mr. Garrett told the paper:

But what was unknown to us and to a lot of people that day, including those in Times Square, was that there were undercover cops already there, paid to be disruptive and to be loud. One undercover cop present [at Citi] was louder than the entire group.

How did you know he was an undercover cop?

He arrested one of the protestors outside, and slammed her into the wall, and pushed her back into the bank. We all saw him at the precinct with us. He was laughing with the fellow white shirt cops, telling them about what we’d been saying, basically. It was a bit startling how inside their information was – how they were being paid to go to these protests and put us in situations where we’d be arrested and not be able to leave.

You can watch WellAware1.com’s take on the infiltration of Occupy Wall Street :

 

The True Story of The Bilderberg Group

Delving into a world once shrouded in mystery, this investigative report provides a fascinating account of the annual meetings of the world’s most powerful people, The Bilderberg Group. Since first meeting in 1954 at the Bilderberg Hotel in the Netherlands, The Bilderberg Group has been comprised of prime ministers, presidents and the wealthiest CEOs of the world, all deliberating the economic and political future of humanity. The press has never attended these meetings, which have ramifications on the citizens of the world. Using methods that resemble the spy tactics of the Cold War – and in several instances putting his own life on the line – the author managed to learn what was being said and has made it public for the first time.

Posted in Conspiracy, Media, Politics.

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By SurlyTrader – October 20, 2011

Crude Oil Analysis & How To Trade Oil Report

Guest Post from Chris Vermeulen at TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

 

How to trade oil is not an easy thing to do in today’s headline driven market. Even the best oil analysis which may have been correct will still be wrong at times. This is due to the fact that oil has many factors which play into its price. Things likes like extreme weather conditions, geopolitical events, currency fluctuations, economic conditions and supply and demand.

During any time of the day oil traders and their oil analysis stand a good chance of having one of these factors directly affect the price of crude oil messing up their charts.

But, I am a firm believer that these factors (news events) generally fall in line with the overall larger trend of oil. So understanding how to spot trends in oil is a vital part of the equation.

Another important aspect of trading crude oil along with stocks and commodities is for you to understanding how to trade price and volume at an intraday time frame. If you don’t understand candle sticks, chart patterns and volume will get your head handed to you more times than not.

Let’s take a look at some charts and my short video which cover everything you need to know in great detail…

How to Trade Oil Daily Chart Analysis:

Below you can see clearly how the overall trend is down for oil. You can also see the repeated bearish patterns and key resistance levels. In my oil analysis I focus on finding and trading the trend. You will not find me trying to pick a major top or bottom with my strategy; rather I focus on low risk high probability continuation patterns within a trend.

Once the trend stops and reverses there will likely be one or two losing trades as the investment shakes things up and sentiment slowly comes around and shifts to support the new trend in oil.

 

Intraday Crude Oil Analysis:

This is a chart of Oct 19th using a 5 minute interval. The annotations on the chart explain clearly what I saw and was hoping to see for an oil etf trade setup this week.

 

 

How To Trade Oil Conclusion:

In short, I have been waiting for this setup to unfold for a few days now. This report goes to show that if you have the patients to site back, watch and wait you will trade with much less risk. By doing this you reduce risk on your overall position because you can time your entry 1-3 days before oil moves in your favour getting you the best possible price. Also the less time you have to keep your money in a trade the better because of the factors (news events) I told you about earlier. Cash is king! Get my bi-weekly reports and videos by joining my free oil newsletter here: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

 

Posted in Markets, Technical Analysis.

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By Guest – October 19, 2011

Washington Holds Top Income Jobs

Kind of sad that when unemployment is at its highest in decades, national debt levels are soaring and the competitiveness of the United States is dwindling, we allow politicians and civil servants to hold the highest salaries…

The U.S. capital has swapped top spots with Silicon Valley, according to recent Census Bureau figures, with the typical household in the Washington metro area earning $84,523 last year. The national median income for 2010 was $50,046.

In addition, when most private laborers are getting no raises, pay cuts or lay offs, Federal workers see a 3% increase in compensation:

Total compensation for federal workers, including health care and other benefits, last year averaged $126,369, compared with $122,697 in 2009, according to Bloomberg News calculations of Commerce Department data.

Perhaps we should be occupying Pennsylvania Ave rather along with Wall Street.  Only bankers and politicians seem to get rewarded for failure.

Read the full Bloomberg article here.

Posted in Politics.

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By SurlyTrader – October 19, 2011

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