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Noteworthy News – August 2, 2010

Politics:

What They’re Not Telling You about the Deficit – New York Times

Obama’s message to voters: Things could be worse – Associated Press

Report: BP used excessive dispersants in Gulf oil spill(Coast guard Allowed it) – CNN

Speaker Pelosi wants pre-election tax cut vote – Reuters

IMF Says U.S. Financial System May Need $76 Billion in Capital – Bloomberg

Economy:

China overtakes Japan as No. 2 economy – The China Post

Two economists say in new paper that TARP worked – The Washington Post

14.7 Million (19%) Of US Mortgages Have $770 Billion In Underwater Equity, $2.4 Trillion In Total Debt Impaired – ZeroHedge

The crisis of middle-class America – Financial Times

Steep decline in GDP growth raises alarms – LA Times

Jim Rogers predicts a new recession in 2012 – Telegraph

Retirement? You Must Be Kidding. Workers Are Emptying Retirement Plans To Stay Afloat. – CrooksandLiars.com

Greenspan Says Decline in U.S. Home Prices Might Bring Return of Recession – Bloomberg

Chinese Manufacturing Grows at Slowest Pace in 17 Months as Economy Cools – Bloomberg

Markets:

Wall Street marks best month in a year in July – Reuters

Stocks, dollar ease as soft U.S. economic data – Reuters

Oil rises to near $79, gains 4.35 percent in July – Reuters

Gold lost most since December as safe haven fades – Reuters

Banks:

Growth of Problem Banks (Unofficial) – Calculated Risk

Goldman reveals where bailout cash went – USA Today

Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.


Understanding the S&P 500 VEQTOR Index

It is unfortunate that there are not more mutual funds or ETF’s that directly enhance long equity positions with option overlays. I have covered the enhanced Sharpe ratios (risk-adjusted returns) that often accompany these strategies.  I was surprised to find out that Direxion is going to bring the S&P 500 Dynamic VEQTOR Index to the mainstream retail investor packaged nicely in a simple ETF.  As a follow-up to my readers’ requests when I first described the strategy’s performance, I want to take a closer look at just how the index makes systematic calls on implied volatility and how it has achieved such stellar returns.

The S&P 500 Dynamic VEQTOR Index (Volatility EQuity Target Return) represents an investment in the broad equity market with a dynamically rebalanced volatility allocation.   The strategy gains its volatility overlay through the use of short-term VIX futures.  The premise of the strategy is that the VIX has a correlation with the S&P 500 of about -73%.  When the S&P 500 falls sharply, the VIX spikes and then slowly  reverts to a long-term mean.  Under the simplest strategy, a fixed allocation to VIX futures will reduce the volatility of the long equity portfolio by providing a positive offset when the equity market corrects.  This would increase the risk-adjusted returns of the portfolio by reducing the tails of the portfolio’s return distribution.  If the idea is taken one step further, then we can introduce a tactical allocation in volatility wherein the investor can capture the gains from a volatility spike by reducing the allocation to volatility under the assumption that it will eventually revert to the mean.

The S&P 500 VEQTOR Index has the following characteristics:

  • Daily rebalancing mechanism
  • Dynamic long exposure to equities and implied volatility which are based on the realized volatility trend and environment
  • Stop-loss

In order to determine the implied volatility trend, the index uses the following scheme which requires 10 consecutive daily indicators:

  • Uptrend: 5-day Average Implied Volatility > 20-day Average Implied Volatility
  • Downtrend: 5-day Average Implied Volatility < 20-day Average Implied Volatility
  • No Trend: Neither

With our trends established, we can look at the respective allocations:

[table id=1 /]

*The realized volatility environment is determined using the last 22 trading days.

The last piece of the puzzle is the stop-loss feature.  Every day, the 5-business day performance of the excess return strategy is evaluated.  If there is a loss greater or equal to 2%, both equity and volatility allocations are moved to 100% cash position at the close of the following business day.  The strategy will allocate back into equity and volatility once the 5-business day loss is less than 2%.

After a long-winded explanation – just how did it do?

Not a bad strategy at all...

I challenge you all to use this as a guideline for starting your own long vol / long equity strategy.  I think there is a lot of promise in these types of strategies as tools for individuals and fund managers.

Posted in Derivatives, Markets, Trading Ideas.

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Goldman, Paulsen and the Abacus Deal

A short video by USA Today which summarizes the history of the Abacus deal which resulted in the $550M fine to Goldman.  Watch it like an ethics video presented to students – do you see anything wrong with this string of events?

Posted in Derivatives, Markets.

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Will Taking Risk Reward?

It seems that the market is in a precarious position.  After a few months of very weak trading, we have experienced a fairly significant 10% bounce off of the lows and now the S&P 500 sits within a few points of June highs.  The positive price action stems from decent corporate earnings results and outlooks, short covering, a bounce in the Euro, and the release of European bank stress tests (for whatever they are worth).

Dead Cat Bounce?

Some other positive data items for the return of the “risk trade” are a falling dollar, rising AUD, mostly rising commodities and a very weak VIX.

On the flip side of this risk trade is the fact that interest rates remain stubbornly low:

The Ten Year will not follow - Which do you believe?

In addition to low treasury rates, there are a few leading indicators that are a bit troublesome.  Most have been touting the absolute proof of a double dip recession based upon the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s Leading Indicator’s negative growth rate of -10.5%:

The ECRI has become the current hot predictor of catastrophe

As with all signals, nothing is perfect.  The ECRI has gone negative before without recessions, but the research institute is fast to explain away all false readings.  I suggest you pick up their book to figure out how they suggest that you use their tools.  I am sure that if we did experience a double dip, then the institute would be quick to claim that they predicted it.

What had me a bit concerned today was a rather weak reading from the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.  The index has a lot of noise in its data, but the sharp downturn does not leave you with a lot of comfort:

CFNAI takes a quick downturn

So what does it all mean?  As I have said in the past, either equity markets and the underlying corporations are too euphoric or the bond market has it all wrong.  Today, new issue Kimberly-Clark (KMB) 10 year corporate bonds  priced at about a 3.65% yield while their stock pays a 4.12% dividend yield.  Something is not quite right with that picture.   This dilemma lies at the heart of the inflationist/deflationist battle.  Either the equity is attractive, the bonds are very rich, or maybe there is a sweet spot in-between.  If we can believe in a stable economy going forward, without revisiting a strong downturn, then the stock is most likely cheap and the underlying 10 year interest rate is too low.  If the treasury rates and the economic indicators point to a double dip, then a full force of deflation is on us and look out for Quantitative Easing 2.0.  Either you can pick your side or watch from the sidelines.

Posted in Economics, Markets, Politics, Trading Ideas.

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Noteworthy News – July 25, 2010

Politics:

How’s that Troubled Asset Relief Program going? Not so well – Investor’s Business Daily

The next big task of financial reform: dismantling Fannie and Freddie – Economist

White House predicts record $1.47 trillion deficit – Associated Press

How Congress Spends Billions on Itself: Food Tab: $604,000 for Bottled Water, $152 at Quiznos – AOL News

New safe-haven currencies shine amid debt fears – Reuters

Economy:

Deflation: Bad for Japan, but Brutal for the U.S.? – Daily Finance

UK economic growth jumps to 1.1% – BBC News

Fed prepared to ease if economy weakens: Bernanke – Marketwatch

Unemployment above 7% through 2012 says Bernanke – Examiner

U.S. Housing Starts Drop to Lowest Level Since October – Bloomberg

China now world’s biggest energy user – CNN

Markets:

Rosenberg’s 17 reasons to be bullish (seriously) – FT Alphaville

With Stocks, It’s Not the Economy – Time

How profits, stocks can rise as economy stumbles – Washington Post

Shadow space haunts office market – Star Tribune

Treasuries Fall on Better-than-Expected Forecasts for U.S. Company Profits – Bloomberg

Warren Buffet’s 10 Rules for Investing – SelfGrowthEngine

Banks:

UK banks pass stress tests as seven fail in Europe – Telegraph

Federal Report Faults Banks on Huge Bonuses – New York Times

What The Financial Bill Did And Didn’t Do – NPR

Goldman Sachs Profit Drops 82%, Missing Estimates – Bloomberg

Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.




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