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PIGS to the Slaughter

Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain (the PIGS) are all falling down the rabbit hole.  The contagion effect is in full swing for the Eurozone and we have hit a decision point.  If the situation with Greece is not resolved quickly, then the debt crisis will continue to spread and the Euro will continue to collapse.

The PIGS' default probabilities are spiking

The reality is that Greece cannot be saved.  Their fiscal position has no permanent resolution besides default, but they cannot default as part of the Eurozone without taking its Eurozone hostages with them.  I believe that the most likely outcome is that a bailout package is presented by Germany, France and the IMF to squash the current default scare.  The subsequent action will be to get Greece to withdraw from the Eurozone under their own accord which would allow them to put a moratorium on their debt and inflate their way out of their current fiscal debacle.  If this does not happen, then the rest of the Eurozone players will pay the price and Europe will become a cheap vacation hotspot.

It is amazing how quickly a debt crisis can emerge

Posted in Economics, Markets, Politics.

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