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Will the VIX Break Out?

All eyes on the VIX and the S&P 500 to see if we are in for a very ugly summer.  Today might have seemed like a strong rough patch, but in reality we have yet to see a complete meltdown or pervasive protection buying.  The VIX is actually just hitting its May upside barrier for the fourth time this month:

 

Fourth time is the charm?

In trying to assess the situation there is one very interesting dichotomy occurring in the US markets.  Interest rates continue to fall lower while the equity market has remained stubbornly high.  If you look at the 10 year treasury rate versus the S&P 500 price index you can see fairly strong correlation over the last 11 years:

 

Which is right?

The 10 year treasury at a sub 3% yield does not seem as if we should be overly exuberant.  That said, the current earnings on the S&P 500 suggests an earnings yield (earnings over price) of about 6.5%.  This suggests that you would have to cut earnings in half for the earnings yield on the S&P 500 to be equal to the S&P 500.  Would you rather own a basket of stocks that are currently earning a yield that is twice that of a 10 year treasury or would you like to lock in that the treasury rate for 10 years with no potential for upside and put your money at risk to upside inflation?

I could see a correction setting us back to 1200 on the S&P 500, but at this time I would view it as a buying opportunity and chance to have some fun with volatility.

Posted in Economics, Markets, Technical Analysis.

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Counting Inflation Where it Counts

Ask our venerable Federal Chairman Bernanke if prices are higher and he will tell you that, “I think the increase will be transitory, that it will pass, and we will go back to a level of inflation that is consistent with our price stability mandate”.  Tell that to the people struggling to pay their rent, their grocery bills and their gas bills:

Rent:

U.S. apartment rents climbed 5 percent in the 12 months through April, according to research company Axiometrics Inc. Effective rents in the first quarter, or what tenants actually paid, rose in 75 of the 82 markets tracked by data provider Reis Inc., which said the average was up 2.5 percent from a year earlier to $991 a month.

Groceries:

Retail food prices will jump more than the US Department of Agriculture’s estimate of 3 per cent to 4 per cent this year, said Chad Hart, an economist at Iowa State University.

Companies will pass along more of their higher costs for the rest of the year, said Bill Lapp, a former ConAgra Foods chief economist. Groceries and restaurant meals rose 2.4 per cent in the first four months, the most to start a year since 1990.

Gasoline:

High prices at the pump are putting a squeeze on the family budget as the traditional summer driving season begins. For every $10 the typical household earns before taxes, almost a full dollar now goes toward gas, a 40 percent bigger bite than normal.

Households spent an average of $369 on gas last month. In April 2009, they spent just $201. Families now spend more filling up than they spend on cars, clothes or recreation. Last year, they spent less on gasoline than each of those things.

Stagnant Wages:

The failure of U.S. wages to keep pace with inflation threatens to leave economic growth sluggish and forecasts for a strong pick-up in output later this year may prove too optimistic.

Average hourly earnings rose a measly three cents, or 0.1 percent, in April from March, the government said on Friday. Over the past year, they are up a modest 1.9 percent.

 

The destruction of the dollar through 0% Fed Fund’s policy and burgeoning government debt just might not be transitory.  Ask those workers who did not get any sort of raise if Mr. Bernanke is providing them with relief through his interest rate policies.  I doubt it….but all of those risky borrowers who took out a lot of debt, congrats on winning the Fed’s favor.

 

Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.

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Noteworthy News – May 31, 2011

Economy:

China’s Economy Slows, but Inflation Still Looms – New York Times

Carter: Economic Stagnation Explained, at 30,000 Feet – Bloomberg

U.S. Incomes Remain Stagnant as Inflation Rises – The Atlantic

Markets:

Housing Index Is Expected to Show a New Low in Prices – New York Times

Yuan at record high versus dollar after Treasury report – BBC News

Oil Drops on Slowing U.S. Economy, Europe Debt – Bloomberg

Politics:

Inspectors find that Greece missed all Targets – Reuters

How to Beat the Market: Follow the Trades of 19 Senators on the Senate Armed Services Committee Who Own Stocks on Prohibited List – MISH’S Global Economic Trend Analysis

Euro Crisis Looms for Group of 8 – New York Times

Banks:

The Fed’s secret giveaway to European banks – Reuters

Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.


Big Brother Free to Search your Electronic Documents

If you make the assumption that documents stored on Google are just as private as documents stored on your home computer, you are vastly mistaken.   From the Washington Times:

“What most Americans don’t realize is that if the government wants to read your emails, look at your pictures or gain access to any data that you have stored online for more than 180 days on sites including Yahoo! Google Docs and online backup sites, it can do so without a search warrant. Data saved online is not protected by the Fourth Amendment in the same way that information is protected if it is stored on a home computer, CD or detachable hard drive.”

If this loophole is closed, and electronic data stored at a data warehouse is protected by some measure of law, I still will not use cloud servers to save any important or non-public information.  I think everyone needs to use a bit of prudence in saving their right to privacy.  If you do not want the information to be plastered on the front page of a newspaper, then I suggest that you not save that information anywhere on the internet.

Posted in Media, Politics.

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What Tax Bracket Are You In?

It might surprise you just where you fall this year.  Feel free to peruse the preliminary 2011 tax bracket data according to the Tax Policy Center:

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Posted in Politics.

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