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Noteworthy News – June 13, 2011

Economy:

Roubini Says ‘Perfect Storm’ May Threaten Global Economy – Bloomberg

Japan Strongbox Sales Soar on Cash Demand – Bloomberg

When will incomes return to their 2006 level? – Reuters

Retire at 80? Boomers and Gen X May Be Stuck in Work Force – LiveScience

Fixing America’s Economy: Nine Ideas from Around the World – Bloomberg

Summers calls for new boost to economy – Reuters

Markets:

Greece falls to S&P’s lowest rated, default warned – Reuters

Bitcoin Goes Haywire – NPR

Facebook IPO Valuation Could Top $100 Billion: Sources – CNBC

Stocks Plunge Amid Fears That Global Economy Is Slowing – New York Times

Politics:

The Eurozone Heads for Break Up – EconoMonitor (Nouriel Roubini)

Inflation Destroys $58 Billion In Savings In The UK In Just One Year – Business Insider

Banks:

Government extends deadline for banks to comply with foreclosure review mandate – Washington Post

Big Banks Penalized for Performance in Mortgage Modification Program – New York Times


Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.


The Power of The Ben Ber-Nank

All it takes are a few words:

“…the economy is still producing at levels well below its potential; consequently, accommodative monetary policies are still needed. Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established…

As I have explained, most FOMC participants currently see the recent increase in inflation as transitory and expect inflation to remain subdued in the medium term. Should that forecast prove wrong, however, and particularly if signs were to emerge that inflation was becoming more broadly based or that longer-term inflation expectations were becoming less well anchored, the Committee would respond as necessary. Under all circumstances, our policy actions will be guided by the objectives of supporting the recovery

in output and employment while helping ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s mandate.”

The Result:

Dollar and S&P fall, Treasuries Rally

The Takeaway:

The Ber-Nank said he will keep short rates low, but that he is watching out for inflation which means a rise in the Federal Reserve 5 Year Forward breakeven inflation rate.  What really disappointed the market was that he acknowledged the economy was weak but did not mention a possible QE3.

Posted in Economics, Media.

Tagged with , .


A “Mild” Correction?

There is not much to say about what has been some very ugly trading the last few weeks.   The S&P 500 is down 5.68% from its late April peak and has traded through much of the immediate support without a bounce.  It seems like 1255-1260 is almost certain, but what I find interesting is how tame short-term volatility has been.  Despite a lot of ominous signals in both the way equities and bonds are trading as well as some pretty rotten economic indicators, we have yet to see a strong spike in volatility.  This makes me think that those who are long are reluctant to put on hedges and/or any spike in volatility is met by a frenzy of volatility sellers.   If it is simply the latter, then those volatility sellers will be puking shorts if this turns out to be a 15% correction with the S&P below 1200.

What does a fella gotta do to see 19 level VIX?

Posted in Markets, Media.

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Noteworthy News June 6th, 2011

Economy:

Analysis: Stalled economy, less stimulus ahead – Reuters

Will the Fed do QE3? – Washington Post

As Condos Fill, Retail Space Remains Vacant – New York Times

Half of Last Month’s New Jobs Came from a Single Employer — McDonald’s – The Weekly Standard

Markets:

As ice caps melt, Russia stakes its claim to oil-rich Arctic – CS Monitor

Dow Falls in Longest Slump Since 2004 Amid Concern About Economy – San Francisco Chronicle

Corporate Bonds Roll With Rates Still In Check – Wall Street Journal

Brazilian Barbecue Cheaper in U.S. Shows Strong Real Takes Toll – Bloomberg

Politics:

How to Fix the Postal Service? – Freakonomics

The Facts about the Government’s Medicare Cost Projections – Reason.com

Attention Marxists: Labor’s Share Of National Income Drops To Lowest In History – Zero Hedge/Rosenberg

The Hollywoodification Of Presidential Politics – NPR

Banks:

Why Bankers Need to Be Put Into Little Boxes – Harvard Business Review

Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.


What the Drop in ISM Suggests for Equities

The recent plunge in the ISM manufacturing index was the largest one month drop since 1984.  Some will suggest that it’s a mere slowdown in growth which should naturally be expected in any recovery, but I believe it is indicative of all negative economic surprises as of late that have lead to a sub 3% yield on the 10 year treasury.  What is even more ominous is the strong correlation between the ISM and the 1 year rolling return in the S&P 500:

An ugly drop in ISM suggests an equity correction?

The adjusted R squared of this duo is above 50%, but if you analyze the data you will find that sometimes the ISM leads, sometimes it happens at the same time, sometimes it is a bit behind.  Regardless, it is a very negative reading that actually is just indicative of the other ugly economic news that continues to roll out:

Where is the plunge protection team for economic surprises? QE3?

Bottom line: It will probably get more interesting from here before it gets boring.

Posted in Economics, Markets, Media.

Tagged with , , , .




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