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Noteworthy News – August 1, 2011

Economy:

America’s economy: Distress signal – Economist

“Economic Armageddon”: Washington’s Response to a Failed Ecomomy: More War – GlobalResearch.Ca

American recessions and recoveries: Recessions compared – Economist

Weak economy to prompt Fed QE3? Not so fast – Reuters

Markets:

Banks Find Few Signs of Default Distress in Repo, Credit Markets – Bloomberg

Markets could be nearing a tipping point – Washington Post

Politics:

Top Sen. Republican: deal very close on default – Associated Press

Deal Framework Reached on Raising U.S. Debt Ceiling – Bloomberg

Can a giant platinum coin save our credit? – Bloomberg

There never was a surplus – Economist

Moody’s: Neither debt plan protects the nation’s AAA rating – The Hill

Lessons of Lower Ratings – Wall Street Journal


 

Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.


Social Unrest and the Gold Standard

How much of our 20th and 21st century conflicts have been a result of fiat currencies?

 

 

Posted in Politics.

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Politics Versus Economics

There was an interesting note from Bloomberg showing that the default probability in 1 year credit default swaps on the US government spiked quickly to surpass the credit spread in 5 year credit default swaps for the first time:

This is interesting, but a few points to note.  I am seeing 5 year CDS at a 52 week high of 62.47 bps.  I am seeing 1 year CDS at a high of 80 bps.  If we assume simple assumptions of 40% recovery on both, this is implying a 1.35% chance of default in the 1 year spread and a 5.14% chance of default in the 5 year spread.  Neither of these spreads are scary, and if you assume that there is a 1% chance of default in any given year then the two are not incongruous.

In addition, we have seen little move in short term treasury yields.  In fact, 1 month treasury yields have moved from lows of -.015% on July 13, 2011 to +.077% or less than 8 bps today.  Not much fear in the 1 month numbers.  2 year treasury rates?  They have increased from 35 bps to 43 bps.

The current point is that there has been little fear in the markets so far.  This might be a media panic event, but as of today the markets view it as a non-event.  Hopefully the markets do not discount the stupidity of politicians too far.

Posted in Markets, Media.

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Debt Ceiling Repercussions

From BofA:

Economic Impact:

  • Cut 2012 GDP growth by 0.7% for every additional $100 bn in 2012 cuts
  • Cut Q4, Q1 growth by 0.3% for every week of shutdown
  • Recession if 3 or 4 weeks
  • Under automatic cuts in spending we will see $185 billion less in 2012.  With additional aggressive cuts of $150 billion, we would see a 2% drop in GDP

Nickel & Diming

10-year savings (billions)

Bush tax cuts                                       2,502.0

Top two brackets                                 1,187.0

End ethanol subsides                           60.0

End oil & gas subsidies                       36.5

Carried interest                                      17.0

Corporate jets                                         3.0

Not exactly feel-good information.

Posted in Politics.

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Obama’s Waffling on the Debt Ceiling

I think just two quotes can sum up President Obama’s speech tonight on raising the debt ceiling.

From Senator Obama’s Floor Speech, March 20, 2006:

The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. … Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that “the buck stops here.” Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.

From President Obama’s Address, July 25, 2011:

Defaulting on our obligations is a reckless and irresponsible outcome to this debate…History is scattered with the stories of those who held fast to rigid ideologies and refused to listen to those who disagreed. But those are not the Americans we remember. We remember the Americans who put country above self, and set personal grievances aside for the greater good. We remember the Americans who held this country together during its most difficult hours; who put aside pride and party to form a more perfect union.

I will not talk about the merits of either plan because I believe the actual details have been missing from the public media debate.  It seems that the only appeal either party is making is to the visual and core senses of the voters.  One is the incessant use of “corporate jet owners” as the repeated meme against profligacy:

Most Americans, regardless of political party, don’t understand how we can ask a senior citizen to pay more for her Medicare before we ask corporate jet owners and oil companies to give up tax breaks that other companies don’t get.

The response is immediate, “well yeah, I’m not going to side for a rich corporate jet owner against my grandma’s medical care!”  Another amusing fact about the corporate jet owner tax break – the tax break was actually created by the 2009 stimulus bill put into action under his own presidency.

Another from Obama is the Evil Hedge Fund Manager:

How can we ask a student to pay more for college before we ask hedge fund managers to stop paying taxes at a lower rate than their secretaries?

I will make a bet that under either party we will not see an increase in taxes for hedge fund managers OR the billionaire likes of Warren Buffett.

Everyone else – look forward to paying a national sales tax, taxes on all internet purchases, higher income taxes and taxes through inflation. All else is nothing but a vacuous promise and appeal to emotions.

 

Posted in Media, Politics.

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