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Warren Buffett’s Alpha 1977-2009

Insider Monkey did a little bit of analysis to quantify Warren Buffet’s historical alpha contribution.  The conclusion:

“Warren Buffett had a phenomenal annual alpha of 19% between 1956 and 1968. Our current analysis shows that his alpha was more than 30% between 1977 and 1981. During the 80′s and 90′s, his annual alpha declined but was still better than 12%. For the ten years leading to mid-2003, his annual alpha stayed around 12% per year. Since then, it started a steep decline; by the end of 2004 it was (still a respectable) 6% per year. Between 2005 and 2008 Buffett’s alpha averaged only 3% per year. Finally, in the ten years ending in 2009, it went virtually to zero.

Either Warren is losing his touch or his size has gotten the best of him.

Read the full article here.

Posted in Markets, Trading Ideas.

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The Lofty Euro

The dollar has been declining and gold has been rallying.  This makes a good amount of sense considering the investor public is pricing in a second round of quantitative easing.

The Dollar Falls and Gold Rallies - The world seems right again...

But wait, what about our Euro sister.  I can understand when the Aussie Dollar (AUD) rallies like a bandit as commodity prices rally and borrowers are punished while savers are rewarded, but why is the Euro playing with the $1.40 level?

Am I missing something? The Euro is a good currency again?

Germany has come out with some great economic news, but since when did we say that Portugal, Spain, Greece and Ireland were going to be carried to safety by German citizens?  Did I miss a major news story?  A country with a credit default swap spread greater than 500 is nothing more than rated junk, yet the currency seems to have been given a bath in holy water.

CDS Levels of the PIGS have come down a bit, but still junk

Nowhere will you find me singing the praises of the US dollar, but you certainly will not catch me converting all of my dollars for Euro’s at a $1.40 exchange rate.  I might as well pay 40 cents in tax to the Greek government.

Posted in Economics, Markets, Politics, Trading Ideas.

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Noteworthy News – October 12, 2010

Economy:

Fed’s Hoenig: Economy doesn’t need more liquidity – Denver Business Journal

Google Plans Alternative Inflation Index Using Web Data (Deflationary Trend) – Financial Times

The Best- and Worst-Performing State Economies in America – The Atlantic

The ‘Irrational’ Way Humans Interact With Dentists – NPR

Markets:

Stocks, treasurys react to cue that Fed will boost economy – CNN

Nobel for explaining why markets fail – Marketwatch

Ackman bullish on stocks, U.S. economy – Marketwatch

Treasury sells notes at record low interest rate – Bloomberg

Politics:

US Cities Face Half a Trillion Dollars of Pension Deficits – Financial Times

The Age of Austerity – Newsweek

The German Surge: Rising Tax Revenues Mean Less Public Debt for 2010 – Spiegel

Banks

J.P. Morgan Chase freezes 56,000 foreclosures – Washington Post

Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.


Janet Tavakoli Calls out the Banks

As always, Tavakoli is spot on.  The recent freeze in foreclosures and the whole mortgage crisis is, “the biggest fraud in the history of the capital markets. And it’s not something that happened last week. It happened when these loans were originated, in some cases years ago.”

When asked how much trouble the banks are in:

“When we had the financial crisis, the first thing the banks did was run to Congress and ask for accounting relief. They asked to be able to avoid pricing this stuff at the price where people would buy them. So no one can tell you the size of the hole in these balance sheets. We’ve thrown a lot of money at it. TARP was just the tip of the iceberg. We’ve given them guarantees on debts, low-cost funding from the Fed. But a lot of these mortgages just cannot be saved. Had we acknowledged this problem in 2005, we could’ve cleaned it up for a few hundred billion dollars. But we didn’t. Banks were lying and committing fraud, and our regulators were covering them and so a bad problem has become a hellacious one.

And when asked how to fix the problem:

“This can be done with a resolution trust corporation, the way we cleaned up the S&Ls. The system got back on its feet faster because we grappled with the problems. The shareholders would be wiped out and the debt holders would have to take a discount on their debt and they’d get a debt-for-equity swap. Instead we poured TARP money into a pit and meanwhile the banks are paying huge bonuses to some people who should be made accountable for fraud. The financial crisis was a product of our irrational reaction, which protected crony capitalism rather than capitalism.”

Bravo Janet.  I just hope that you continue to speak freely.

Read the full post here.

Posted in Markets, Media, Politics.

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Aussie Dollar Breaking 1983 Highs

On December 9, 1983 Prime Minister Bob Hawke and the Labor party floated their currency in a reflection of the balance of payments.  Commodities make up a large portion of exports so a rally in commodity prices generally coincides with a rally in in the Australian dollar.

Maybe AUD is a great way to protect wealth in real terms.

Back on June 8th I said that the flight to quality had hit the AUD quite hard and that it was time to diversify into these currencies with stronger balance sheets.  Since that time the AUD has risen about 19%.

Posted in Economics, Markets, Trading Ideas.

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