If you are short, the poor payroll numbers on Friday and downward pressure on the S&P 500 might have seemed like the turning point. As the day wore on, the market continued to move upward and close the week with a small gain. From my vantage point, the rally is still intact. Despite some ominously low interest rates (2.8% Ten Year?!) and some negative economic news, the technicals still look positive.
The VIX broke through its 200 day MA, but went on to post a bearish outside day by the close
The upward trajectory might be unsustainable, but for now the path of least resistance is upward
If you are frustrated with the current trading, I suggest you take a step back. August is the month of the “holiday” in Europe and the time when kids go back to school. Trading should be light and uneventful through the month, but my feeling is that the choppiness will return in September. You can still be right, but right at the wrong time.
