Does anyone else think that 1 1/2 years is rather quick for the market to reach its final bottom in the 2007/2009 credit crisis? In order for that to be the case, the bottom would have been established on March 9, 2009 at 676.53 after 18 months, a similar slide to the bear markets of 68-70 or 73-74. I find that hard to believe. The bottoming process during the Japanese asset bubble and great depression took over 30 months to synthesize all data into the market. It seems likely that this crisis will be no different. It could be that we do nothing but retrace to the lows of March, but I do think those who are hoping for a continuous rally from here might be a little too optimistic.
