Noteworthy News – December 3, 2012
Economy:
Evidence is mounting that moderate minimum wages can do more good than harm – Economist
The lottery of life: Where to be born in 2013 – Economist
Chart: What Black Friday’s $59 Billion Really Tells Us – Bloomberg
Summary of Economic Reports by Federal Reserve District Banks – Bloomberg
UK economic growth confirmed at 1% – BBC
Markets:
Case-Shiller shows home prices rise again – CBS Marketwatch
Politics:
Two-thirds of millionaires left Britain to avoid 50p tax rate – Telegraph
Watch What Warren Buffett Does, Not What He Says – The Weekly Standard
More Greek myths: The need to speak truth to weakness – Economist
What Defines A Serious Deficit Proposal? – New York Times (Krugman)
Simpler Taxes Now, Growth Later – New York Times
Banks:
It’s a Great Time To Be a Banker in America – MotherJones
Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.
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– December 2, 2012
US Dollar and Market Relationships Near Term
Guest post from David Banister of TheMarketTrendForecast.com
The SP 500 is likely to pullback from a 66 point rally off the 1343 pivots. Those pivots were right at a Fibonacci fractal retracement of 61.8% of the Summer rally. That rally ran from 1267-1474 as we all know in hindsight, and the correction was a normal correction within a bull cycle.
Near term, we had a nice run to 1409 and met resistance there. We would expect a pullback to the 1384 areas on the SP 500, if not a bit lower in the coming days. The US Dollar is likely to get a bounce which will also pull down Precious Metals along with stocks near term.
We think this could be a opportunity to buy as we approach pivot pullback buy points, but of course we will monitor in the event the pullback becomes more dire than expected.
Below are charts of the US Dollar and The SP 500 Index and potential near term movements to monitor. Over at our we closed out long positions in NUGT ETF with nice gains yesterday as well as stocks with trading profits while we watch the pullback action.
Posted in Markets, Technical Analysis.
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– November 28, 2012
Noteworthy News – November 26, 2012
Economy:
Retailers’ Black Friday Arms Race Backfires – Wall Street Journal
Meet the modern American family – Switchboard
Skills Don’t Pay the Bills – New York Times
Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week to 410,000 – Bloomberg
Markets:
Micro stars, macro effects: Meet the economists who are making markets work better – Economist
Misconstruing Germany Will Prove to Be Death of the Euro – Bloomberg
$100 Bills Make Up 80% of All U.S. Currency—but Why? – The Atlantic
Politics:
Merkel rival warns of impact of Greek default – Telegraph
Economists, Obama administration at odds over role of mortgage debt in recovery – WashingtonPost
Global Report by PwC 2013. Taxes in Italy? Oh my Gosh! – Italian Allegro
Banks:
Banking must not be left in the shadows – Financial Times
Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.
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– November 25, 2012
Market at Risk of One More Leg Down in November
Guest Post from David Banister of TheMarketTrendForecast.com
The SP 500 declined a perfect 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the summer rally from the 1267 lows to the 1474 highs. In our work we examine human behavioral patterns, sentiment, and Elliott Wave patterns to help with clues on market direction. To be sure, there is no such thing as a perfect technical analysis methodology, so we do our best to mix up a home cooked recipe for assistance in getting as close as we can to calling the pivots up and down.
In the near term, we notice the market has rallied out about 45 points off the 1344 pivot lows last week to around 1390 today. This retracement marks a normal 38.2% Fibonacci recovery of the most recent wave 3 decline to 1344. Typically, this is a wave 4 mini-bullish pattern as washout lows get bought and then shorts cover fueling the rally a bit higher. However, this is often when another sledgehammer comes out of left field and knocks the market down in what we would call a “Wave 5” decline to new lows on the downtrend.
Investors should watch both the 20 day moving average which is declining and around 1392 or so, and the 1388-1392 38% Fibonacci retracement areas for resistance. Only a strong close over 1392 can eliminate the potential for one more leg down to the 1316 areas on the SP 500 before the month of November comes to a close. With that said, we expect a rally in December for the markets and hope to see this barrier taken out soon, but would advise traders to tread with caution until such time.
Posted in Markets, Technical Analysis.
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– November 20, 2012
