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The Reward for Failure

As the news about year-end bonuses for Wall Street executives and traders trickles in, it seems to be a very good time to examine two of the most high profile failures during the crisis.  The argument for large executive pay usually comes down to a few running themes: 1) great visionary CEO’s with leadership skills are hard to come by and 2) the cost of a good CEO is much less than the value that he creates for the stakeholders in the firm.  Whether you believe in the size of the salaries and bonuses that some executives are paid, there is one creed that just about everyone believes in: you should be paid for success, not failure.  Jamie Diamond, the CEO of JP Morgan, the 4th largest bank in the world, brought home over $19.6M in 2008 which was over 83 times the amount that the CEO of the largest bank in the world took home.

With the US paying out so much to its executives, it is important to question if we are getting what we paid for

With the US paying out so much to its executives, it is important to question if we are getting what we paid for

It can be argued that Jamie Diamond navigated through the financial storm with tenacity and was able to bring JP Morgan out on the other side with a very solid balance sheet.  It can also be argued that the complexity of the products on American banks’ balance sheets are many times more difficult to manage than the more straightforward loans that Industrial and Commercial Bank of China deals with.  Let us just go with those assumptions.  What about the firms that blew up in a spectacular fashion – Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns.  How did their executives make out?

That was the question addressed by Bebchuk, Cohen, & Spamann in The Wages of Failure: Executive Compensation at Bear Stearns and Lehman 2000-2008.  It was widely assumed that the executives of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers lost a tremendous amount of wealth as the stocks plummeted towards zero.  The truth is less endearing.  It turns out that the top 5 executives at Bear Stearns took home compensation in the form of bonuses and equity sales of nearly nearly $1.5B between 2000 and 2008.   The top 5 executives at Lehman Brothers did not do quite as well with a mere $1B over the same time period.

$1.5B for the executives at Bear Stearns and $1B for those at Lehman

$1.5B for the executives at Bear Stearns and $1B for those at Lehman

Much of the debate around executive compensation will surely focus on whether the compensation packages actually spurred excessive risk taking.  I do not necessarily want the government to impose restrictions or dissuade risk-taking, but instead feel that they should focus on the rewards for successful risk-taking and the punishments for failure.  I believe the authors of the research piece hit the nail on the head when they said:

“Consider the structure of the firms’ bonus compensation. The executives were able to obtain large amounts of bonus compensation based on high earnings in the years preceding the financial crisis, but did not have to return any of those bonuses when the earnings subsequently evaporated and turned into massive losses. Such a design of bonus compensation provides executives with incentives to seek improvements in short-term earnings figures even at the cost of maintaining an excessively high risk of large losses down the road.”

It might seem like a little bit of the “chicken or the egg” dilemma, but I think that if you ignore the benefits of educated risk-taking you throw the baby out with the bathwater and stifle the American entrepreneurial spirit.  Financial firms can and should take financial risk when they feel that the expected rewards compensate them for the risk.  The most dangerous case is when risk-taking is done recklessly because the firms and executives know that there is a safety net if things go badly.

Bebchuk, Lucian A., Cohen, Alma and Spamann, Holger, The Wages of Failure: Executive Compensation at Bear Stearns and Lehman 2000-2008 (November 24, 2009).Yale Journal on Regulation, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1513522

Posted in Conspiracy, Politics.

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Noteworthy News – January 10, 2010

Politics

Economy

Markets

Victory-For-Terrorists

Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.


Foreclosure.com Files for Bankruptcy

How Ironic.

“The parent company of Foreclosure.com and a stable of more than 150 other Web sites says its doors will remain open after two lawsuits forced it to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.”

Read the full story here.

Posted in Media.

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Option Strategy: Long Gamma, Short Vega

Volatility is an asset class that trades under different regimes.  During very calm periods with more economic certainty and stability, volatility trades at very low levels.  When corporate earnings become uncertain, GDP growth is unknown, and jobless rates are high, volatility tends to shift and trade at higher levels.  This might seem like an overly simple concept, but it is important to keep in mind at all times when trading options.  The question becomes: are we in a high volatility regime, a medium volatility regime or a low volatility regime?

Volatility entered a higher regime mid-2007.  Are we leaving that regime?

Volatility entered a higher regime mid-2007. Are we leaving that regime?

Historical 30-day volatility has recently hit a low of below 12%.  A volatility of 12% means that we are experiencing daily moves on the S&P 500 of about .75%.  My belief is that this is much too low.  When top economists such as Krugman and Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach are placing 40% odds of a double dip global recession by the end of 2010, I find it improbable that we can expect daily moves of less than 1%.  In addition, the historical periods following the great depression’s market bottom and the Japanese asset bubble bottom were ripe with volatility.  For over 7 years after the market bottoms the returns remained turbulent.

Historically, volatility remains high after market bottoms from major market corrections

Historically, volatility remains high after market bottoms from major market corrections

The question is how to profit from the idea of volatility returning to the market when you are generally an option seller and want to take advantage of implied volatility being higher than realized volatility.  The key lies in the tenor of the options.

Options with longer lives have higher implied volatility

Options with longer lives have higher implied volatility

By examining the skew and term structure of implied volatility, you can see that options with longer maturities have higher implied volatilities than options that expire soon.  In addition, we still see a pretty strong skew, meaning that out of the money put options are trading for quite a bit higher implied volatility than at the money put options.  This structure provides a very good way to take advantage of a view that realized volatility will pick up soon while long term volatility will be lower than the ~24% that out of the money put options are trading at.

The strategy is simple:

  1. Purchase a 1 – 3 month put at-the-money which has a high gamma and low vega
  2. Sell a 1 year put 10% or further out of the money which exhibits a high negative vega and low gamma
  3. Delta hedge the overall position with the SPY ETF so that the delta is neutral at the end of each trading day

The purchased short-term put option will make money when the S&P 500 moves more than the expected 16% implied volatility that you purchased it at.  The written 1 year put option out of the money will make money as that long term implied volatility falls, but if you hold it to expiration it will make money as realized volatility comes in less than the 25% implied that you sold it at.  We could ignore the delta-hedging aspect of this position, but it would leave us with directional risk in the markets which we might want to avoid.

Posted in Derivatives, Trading Ideas.

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No Sure Thing in 2010

Paul McCulley, portfolio manager at Pimco, made a rather astute comment that stuck with me, “You can only eat what’s in the cafeteria, and right now the cafeteria doesn’t have anything particularly appetizing in it.”  That metaphor certainly rings true in today’s market.  Many economists are predicting a very strong US GDP result for 4th quarter 2009, a statistic that is mostly attributable to massive government intervention and the restocking of inventories.  The longer term question remains: will top-line sales provide earnings growth going forward rather than corporate cost cutting.  In addition, we have highly respected economists such as Paul Krugman stating that a recession in the second half of 2010 after fiscal and monetary stimulus fade has a “30 to 40 percent chance”.  These uncertainties mixed with the fact that the government will be stopping its buying programs and will also be forced to term out its massive debt will put upward pressure on interest rates.  With this sort of backdrop, what do you invest in?

Bottom Choices:

Mediocre Choices:

  • Junk bonds (JNK):  I know a wave of defaults is going to continue on, but it seems that a lot of very poorly run companies with no prospects of surviving have been able to term out their debt and buy plenty of time.  An 11% yield should compensate investors for interest rate risk and default risk for now.
  • Preferred Shares (PGF, PFF): I loved PFF when it was offering a 16% dividend yield, but now that it has drifted down to 7.5% it seems that being exposed to rising interest rates along with equity type risk is no longer very appealing.  Financial preferreds (PGF) are offering a higher rate and may still have some juice.
  • Corporate Bonds (ITR, LQD): Another asset class I loved in 2009 when credit spreads were still at lofty levels, but with sub 5% yields the interest rate risk is becoming a bigger factor in their appeal.  I might put on more corporate exposure, but I will be sure to hedge some of the interest rate risk with treasury futures or short treasury bond positions (TLT).

OK Choices

  • Selling Volatility(VIX): With the VIX at 20%, selling volatility will most likely make money, but I do expect some very large spikes in coming months.  It would be very odd to have such a large dislocation in 2007/2008 and then a “return to normal”.
  • Commodities (DBC, GLD, SLV):  The rally in the dollar has provided another opportunity to offload some of the inflation risk that is lingering out there.  Gold and silver can move like racehorses, so it is crucial to take their volatility into consideration.  I do not like holding inanimate objects without dividends, but in this environment I think it is prudent.
  • REITS (IYR): A little bit of inflation protection over time, but with dividends.  They have had a strong rally and I am not looking for great performance, but a 4.4% dividend yield helps a lot.  Inflation should be passed on through that yield.
  • Foreign Currencies (CAD, AUD, BRL, KRW, NOK): Get out of the fiat currencies with the biggest risks.  Look for stronger balance sheets.

Possible Good Choices

This is a US centric look at where the markets currently reside, but a lot of these themes play out around the globe.  Asset prices have climbed quickly, but the uncertainty still lingers.  I still like having some cash on the sidelines because all good things do come to an end.  At the same time, we have to make the most out of the hand we were dealt, so hoarding cash is not an option.  In these uncertain times, I think the best strategy is to play the relative value of these asset classes against each other.

Posted in Markets, Trading Ideas.

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