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Noteworthy News – 9/12/2010

Economy:

U.S. poverty rates reach 1960’s crisis levels: 45 million Americans, or 1 in 7, are considered “poor” – Yahoo News

Inflation in China Is Rising at a Fast Pace – New York Times

The Myth of Chinese Competitiveness – Are low wages China’s strength or weakness? – Research Institute of Economy, Trade & Industry

Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain ground – The Raw Story

Markets:

Investors, prepare for volatility – Reuters

Oil Rises For Second Day Amid Optimism About Economic Recovery in the U.S. – Bloomberg

Australian Dollar Climbs to Four-Month High on China Outlook; Kiwi Gains – Bloomberg

Treasury 10-Year Note Yields Climb to One-Month High on Economy – Bloomberg

Politics:

Top Earners Lose Cost of BMW If Bush Tax Cuts Expire – Bloomberg

Would raising taxes on the rich help or hurt the U.S. economy? – Miami Herald

Banks

Global regulators agree on tougher Basel III bank rules – Reuters

Banks told to double their cash reserves – Telegraph

SEC chief pledges better bank oversight – Salt Lake Tribune

Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.


$75,000 is the Perfect Salary

According to a study from economist Angus Deaton and famed psychologist Daniel Kahneman, there is an income level at which happiness plateaus:

“The magic income: $75,000 a year. As people earn more money, their day-to-day happiness rises. Until you hit $75,000. After that, it is just more stuff, with no gain in happiness.

That doesn’t mean wealthy and ultrawealthy are equally happy. More money does boost people’s life assessment, all the way up the income ladder. People who earned $160,000 a year, for instance, reported more overall satisfaction than people earning $120,000, and so on.”

It is either a very interesting finding or the result of a socialist agenda.  I do buy into the notion that many people are only happy with their socioeconomic status as long as they perceive themselves as better off than the people they see around them.  For example, you can live in a million dollar house and have a nice salary, but if you have a $20M house with a helipad across the street your relative happiness will be less than the guy making $90,000 in a city with an average income of $40,000.

Posted in Economics, Media.


Long Dated Versus Short Dated Volatility

Tracking implied volatility surfaces can be very tricky without the right monitoring program or data collection methodology.  The benefit of tracking the surface is that it brings in all dimensions to options trading.  One of the anomalies that I have noticed over the last few months has been the persistence of high implied volatility levels on longer-dated options.  One easy way of seeing this is by looking at the ATM 1 year option implied volatility level versus the 3 month ATM implied volatility level.  Another imperfect way of seeing it is by noticing the steepness of the VIX futures curve.

What I show below is the skew of 3 month and 1 year options on two different dates:

3 Month Vol has fallen rapidly

From the skew charts I would say that selling 3 month vol at 60% moneyness looked great at the end of May.  In a difference sense, 1 year volatility looks relatively more attractive ATM and even out of the money under current conditions.  Always remember that price action is generally mean reverting, so if you believe in volatility cones you should believe that volatility should be lower over longer periods of times.

Posted in Derivatives, Markets, Trading Ideas.

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Collapsing the Ivory Towers

The Economist and other inquisitive media outlets have started to ask the long overdue question: What does paying $250k for a college education from a top tier school really get you…and is it worth it?   To set the stage, the economist did a great job of putting the cost of tuition into perspective:

“College fees have for decades risen faster than Americans’ ability to pay them. Median household income has grown by a factor of 6.5 in the past 40 years, but the cost of attending a state college has increased by a factor of 15 for in-state students and 24 for out-of-state students. The cost of attending a private college has increased by a factor of more than 13 (a year in the Ivy League will set you back $38,000, excluding bed and board). Academic inflation makes medical inflation look modest by comparison.”

For most Americans, the cost of their child’s education will be their second largest financial outlay after purchasing a house. For those students who have to pay for their education without help, they can join the ranks of those with an average cumulative debt of $27,800 when graduating from college.

All booms come to an end and I think the ballooning of college costs will find its apex on the supply/demand curve.  When unemployment is at 10% it might seem like a gift that only 8% of college graduates under age 25 are unemployed.  That gift dissolves when compared to the 3.7% unemployment rate for college grads under 25 in April of 2007.  College grads are still better off than the sub-25 year olds without a college education; they are are currently suffering from a 24.5% unemployment rate, up from 11.4% in 2007.  The young and unemployed portends for an eerie future similar to Japan’s lost generation of youth.

Just as houses became too expensive for consumers, educations are becoming too expensive for students.  While it is arguable true that debt from an education is less destructive than debt from consumption, there is a level where the cost/benefit analysis falls apart.  This becomes especially true in an age where education has become democratized for those with enough desire and self-discipline.  Want to learn how to program?  Why not learn from MIT for free.

Posted in Economics, Markets.

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Noteworthy News – 09/07/2010

Economy:

Economy Avoids Recession Relapse as Data Can’t Get Much Worse – Bloomberg

81% rate U.S. economy as ‘poor’ – CNN Money

Why 100,000 jobs a month won’t lower unemployment rate – CS Monitor

Markets:

Housing Woes Bring a New Cry: Let the Market Fall – NY Times

Analysis: VIX fear gauge leaves Wall Street rudderless – Reuters

Analysis: M&A/credit binge vs double-dip fear – Reuters

Politics:

Obama Unveils Plan to Spend $50 Billion on Infrastructure – CNBC

Bernanke Out of Bullets, But Not Bombs – Business Insider

Banks

JPMorgan Said to End Proprietary Trading to Meet Volcker Rule – Bloomberg

FDIC Q2 Banking Profile: 829 Problem Banks – Calculated Risk

Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.




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