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Muni Yields Look Attractive

As Bloomberg reports, “AAA municipal general obligation bonds due in two years get a yield equal to 119 percent of similar- maturity Treasuries”. There are a few reasons that municipal securities as a whole are being thrown by the wayside:

1) The Budget Crises in states such as Illinois and California are overwhelming any bond issuance from more healthy states and municipalities

2) The federally supported Build America Bonds (BABS) program is set to expire soon without any further help from Congress

3) A large amount of issuance to sort out current budgets is overwhelming the market

4) Municipalities are being compared to the European Sovereign crisis

I believe that all of these issues will sort themselves out in the next few years and we will look at the current market as an anomalous opportunity.  Sure, certain municipalities will default and certain states will hit crisis mode before things get better, but with all over-reacting markets it seems that the baby almost always gets thrown out with the bathwater.  Taxing authority is very powerful and the budget dilemmas of the states are not nearly as dire as those of certain European countries.

Posted in Markets, Media, Politics.

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Noteworthy News – November 22, 2010

Economy:

How was your recession? – The Economist

Japan is ageing faster than any country in history – Economist

U.S. Economy Would Be `Dust’ Without Intervention, Rattner Says: Tom Keene – Bloomberg

Economy Hovers Above Deflation – Forbes

Markets:

Special report: A far from random walk from Wall Street – Reuters

Prime U.S. Mortgage Foreclosures Hit Record as Unemployment Hurts Finances – Bloomberg

GM shares lose momentum in post-IPO NYSE return – Yahoo Finance

California muni bond sales lure investors after market yields jump – LA Times

Politics:

Ireland Set to Receive 120 Billion Euro Rescue Fund, Times Says – Bloomberg

Bernanke hits back at Fed critics – Reuters

Banks:

Largest-ever insider trading probe targets Goldman Sachs – The Raw Story

Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.


Chinese Inflation

Aside from Sovereign default risk scares, the other bit of news spooking the markets is some rather disturbing inflation data from China.

Officially, prices grew at a 4.4 percent annual rate in October, the biggest jump in more than two years. But it’s striking how many people you meet in Beijing who say official statistics lowball the true inflation rate.

One economist I spoke with says inflation is probably running at twice the government’s estimate….if China’s inflation rate climbs to 6 or 8 percent or higher, then the situation changes significantly. China’s central bank would continue to raise interest rates. The government might step into to control prices for grain or other commodities. It would probably be forced to rein all that money flowing out of the banking system that’s fueling China’s boom. Lenders would pull back.

And if all that happens, then the China miracle goes on hiatus, at least for a while. And the world will notice.”

Posted in Economics, Markets.

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PIIGS Go Marching Onward…

I wanted to post a quick update since sovereign default has regained traction in the media.  In the credit default swap market, Ireland is viewed as second most risky to Greece.  The sovereign risk scare is spilling over into the US Municipal market and helping to push the dollar higher, stocks and commodities lower, and bringing US interest rates down.

Posted in Markets, Media, Politics.


Government Red Tape

One of the issues slowing down the economic recovery in the United States (aside from direct taxation) is the ridiculous amount of red tape that hinders the ability of entrepreneurs to start new businesses.  You can blame special interest groups and their strong lobbying power for these ridiculous restrictions, licenses, and permits.

Posted in Economics, Politics.




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